The problem of sex is that the time has not come yet (National Games Changlong but it takes time to reach a certain height), and Tencent next door is the same. Then, competition between peers is the second problem facing iQiyi.
In the field of long video, iQiyi and Tencent Video (106 million members) are the first group, and Youku is the second group. These three companies have previously been. This year’s Spring Festival byte beating became the fourth group, contracted two films “Jiang Ma” and “Big Winner”, and broadcasted on its own platform.
The first threshold in the field of long video is a lot of money. It costs money to buy content copyrights, money to make TV shows, and money to produce variety shows. Small companies simply ca n’t afford it. Therefore, the four players are BAT, and the byte growth of the explosive performance growth, faintly is BAJ (habitually calling J of byte beating main product today’s headline).
On the basis that everyone has money, the second step is to compare the content ecology:
Tencent video is stronger than iQiyi in that it has cooperation with the Internet-based IP library for reading texts from brother companies, and the “IP + produced” model will take advantage. Reading articles is not a day or two in the Tencent system. Why should I pull it out today to talk about it? Because it supplements the ability to produce high-quality content through the acquisition of Xinli, the influence of the IP library will grow.
Byte bounce makes a long video has a unique advantage, the linkage of long video and short video, how to short video associated with long video “tease, eye-catching, title party” how, long video will not start slow. The key is that the byte-beating appetite goes beyond long videos. The watermelon video APP is also benchmarking YouTube, and the medium-length UGC video content such as food, music, pets, and technology are also colorful and have strong operating experience. In the long run, ByteDance is competing with iQiyi in all fields-there is no end to the pinch with Baidu.
Iqiyi management expects 1Q20 revenue growth to be 2% -8%. According to my own estimate of its performance (the basic assumption is that there is no fraud ~), the next three years of revenue will be 45.5 billion yuan, 2.5 times P / S (implied 25 times PE, 10% profit rate, this profit rate assumption This can only be done under very, very optimistic conditions), with a market value of 16.3 billion US dollars, corresponding to an expected ROI of 8.6%. Under the current fundamentals of iQiyi, according to the buying standard of Prophet Church, iQiyi may only be considered when it is $ 11.
I said “Flies don’t bite seamless eggs”, and that crack refers to the haze of the fundamentals (the first and second sources of income encountered problems). However, in view of the current stock price, iQiyi cannot be overestimated. In this case, the short stock price is more difficult to fall.