The new crown epidemic has spread rapidly around the world, causing the largest dollar shortage and the collapse of financial asset prices since the 2008 global financial crisis. The global economy may have suffered the greatest damage since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

In such a severe global epidemic and macroeconomic situation, the “Economist” think tank looks ahead to the global economic outlook in 2020, and the global GDP will shrink by 2.2% in 2020 In addition to individual countries in Asia such as China and India, other countries may have negative growth.

Global growth under the epidemic

G20 countries account for the global economy 90%, 80% of world trade, which means that the performance of G20 countries directly determines the direction of the world economy.

The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that by 2020, only China, India and Indonesia will show positive growth among the G20 countries, and the rest will have negative growth. The situation in the euro zone will be the worst. It is estimated that the GDP of the euro zone will drop by 5.9% in 2020. The second is Latin America, and the United States again.


In 2020, global GDP will shrink by 2.2%, and the high uncertainty of the epidemic will cause a global negative feedback effect Re-strike global economic growth for a long time.

Because the economic recovery is constrained by the epidemic, each country is at a different stage of the epidemic, and the development of special drugs and vaccines is very difficult, and the economic recovery Will be very slow. In January and February this year, the epidemic was mainly concentrated in China. But after March, the epidemic spread to the whole world, and China began to be influenced by other countries. Given that Europe and the United States are the hardest hit by the second round of the epidemic, the weak demand may continue for a long time.

Therefore, compared with the annual growth rate, the changes in this year ’s quarter are more important.

“The Economist” believes that the overall economic growth and economic recovery of the euro zone in 2020 will be V-shaped. The economic growth of the euro zone in the first quarter has slowed down significantly, and the recession will accelerate in the second quarter, but it will start in the third and fourth quarter , The economy may gradually recover.

India, Indonesia, Africa and other regions may be a U-shaped recovery, and the economy will stay at the bottom for longer. The population density in these areas is very high, and the universal medical system still has a gap compared with developed countries. Especially in India, the situation will be more serious, and the local government’s ability to control the epidemic is relatively limited.

Many medical experts compare this new crown epidemic with the Spanish flu, and what people call the Spanish flu of 1918 is actually the flu of 1918-1919. The first outbreak was in the spring of 1918, the second was in the autumn of 1918, and the second was the highest mortality rate, and the third was in the spring of 1919. This means that the spread of the new crown epidemic and vaccine research and development have a high degree of uncertainty. Even if the epidemic is controlled within a short period of time, winter may come back.

This high degree of uncertainty will cause businesses and residents to drastically reduce investment and consumption behavior, and global trade will decline rapidly, resulting in a global negative feedback effect Re-strike global economic growth for a long time.

At present, the impact of the first wave of the new coronavirus has a much greater impact on foreign countries than on China, because foreign epidemic prevention is not as strict as in China. It is worth noting that the problems that existed before the outbreak did not disappear, including the US economic slowdown, Brexit is still to be completed, etc., which will lead to a doubled risk in some countries after the new crown epidemic. The following countries and regions may have more uncertainty:


United Kingdom: The United Kingdom originally planned to complete Brexit on December 31 this year, but now it seems that there may be two consequences: delayed Brexit, similar to the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics; hard Brexit, but In this case, the UK will not benefit from the EU.


Turkey: Turkey ’s risk is particularly high because its economy depends on Europe, and Europe ’s economic recession will be the world ’s worst this year. An economy like Turkey that relies solely on the EU will face a double crisis of foreign trade and finance.


Italy: Italy is already hereDragging the “back legs” of the European Union has always been a banking crisis, and it will be more serious because of the epidemic. This industry is very large in Italy. If there is a large-scale liquidity crisis, it will threaten the whole of Europe. Whether this problem can be properly solved depends on the measures of the European Central Bank.


Africa: There are many countries in Africa, such as Angola, where all have to decline without a new crown. There are also many small African countries that depend on exports, and this year they will face big financial problems. Although there are not many reports of new crown infections in Africa, it is most likely due to the lack of detection reagents and the lack of diagnosis. I am afraid the severity will be underestimated. There are still a large number of people living with HIV in Africa, and if the new coronavirus continues to spread on a large scale, the situation is likely to be difficult to manage.

Is it possible for G20 to take joint action?

The Economist think tank thinks that there is a possibility, but hope is slim. When responding to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the G20 was very effective, but this time it was more difficult. It is almost impossible for G20 to reach full cooperation, and G7 countries will have more consensus than G20.


Emerging Market Crisis

The Economist think tank believes that the price of commodities plummeted, and the currency devaluation of emerging market countries, against emerging market countries and The impact of some poor countries is significant. But different emerging market countries have different problems.

Taking Latin America as an example, the public debt of Argentina and Brazil accounted for more than 60% of GDP, and 60% was proposed by the European Union for public debt Cordon. The fiscal deficit rate is also higher than 3%, so the fiscal space of Argentina and Brazil is very limited. The major economies in Latin America, with the exception of Peru, Chile and Mexico, have little room for stimulus. The problem for Colombia is that its foreign exchange and fiscal revenue are extremely dependent on the export of commodities, including oil, coal, minerals, and coffee beans.

Africa ’s hardest hit are first and foremost countries that rely on commodity exports, such as Angola and Ethiopia, which are more dependent on oil exports. Secondly, because of the contraction in global trade, countries with a relatively large proportion of trade in GDP will also be greatly affected. South Africa is such a country. South Africa ’s main export markets are China, Europe and the United States.The rapid economic decline will have a great impact on South African exports. At the same time, South Africa is also a relatively important international trade transit point. The global trade decline will have a greater impact on South Africa’s transportation service industry. The epidemic also hit the more developed tourism industry in South Africa. So in general, countries with a high proportion of tourism and a high proportion of exports, especially countries that rely heavily on the export of commodities, will face a trade deficit and further cause their currencies to depreciate.

At the same time, there are some poor countries in Africa in emerging market countries. While their exports are declining and their foreign exchange earning capacity is declining, they also need to import medical equipment, which may cause foreign exchange. Great consumption of reserves.


Industry chain shock

The Economist think tank pointed out that the mid-to-long term epidemic situation may reshape the global manufacturing supply chain.


The occurrence of the epidemic will remind many manufacturers, as well as many governments, to move some key manufacturing industries back to their home countries .


The first to bear the brunt will be the pharmaceutical industry chain . Some European pharmaceutical companies, including French pharmaceutical company Sanofi, proposed a plan to accelerate the return of the pharmaceutical industry to Europe in February. At the same time, in some other countries, such as India, the export of many important antibiotics was suspended in time in February. Therefore, although the outbreak did not affect the manufacturing industry in the short term, it may accelerate the outward shift of China’s manufacturing industry in the medium to long term. Many countries may consider increasing local supply of key industries.


Secondly, the production of automobiles and auto parts . Although China does not account for a large share of global trade in this industry, individual countries are very dependent on the production of Chinese parts, such as Japan and South Korea. The automotive industry chain of these two countries has a certain impact.


The third is mobile phone manufacturing. China now accounts for about 59% of global mobile phone manufacturing, which is a very high proportion. Some industrial chains are gradually shifting to Southeast Asia, and then this shift may accelerate. Although China has an advantage in infrastructure, the education level of the labor force is relatively high. These advantages may be able to help China retain some industries, but overall, the overall trend will continue to move toward the global industrial chaindiversification.


Agricultural product price increase year

The Economist think tank analysis believes that this year ’s epidemic occurred during the spring cultivation period, which is very special for Chinese farmers ’production. Missed farm time cannot be recovered. In addition, many agricultural capital companies have not yet opened their doors, and farmers have great problems buying seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides.


World food prices will also rise in 2020

The most affected Chinese agricultural sector will be the poultry production sector. The upstream and downstream dependence of the Chinese breeding industry is very high, and the industrial chain between the markets has been completely interrupted due to the epidemic. At the same time, the risk of African swine fever is far from being eliminated. Now that the price of pigs is at the highest point in history, the price of live pigs will only rise and not fall. Pork has the highest percentage in China’s price index. Therefore, the Economist think tank predicts that China’s inflation pressure this year may exceed 5%.

Such high inflation pressure, coupled with the Fed ’s quantitative easing policy, will face dual pressures on the domestic devaluation and external appreciation, causing great difficulties for companies. This will force some industrial chains to leave China early.

World food prices will also rise. Because China’s market food prices have risen, the world market food prices will inevitably follow the rise due to transmission. In the world food market, such as corn and soybeans, prices will not fluctuate because of the large market. The wheat and rice markets are slightly different. If several major rice exporters this year, such as Vietnam, Thailand or Japan, stop exporting, the price of international rice is very likely to rise sharply.

The Economist think tank concluded that in the first half of 2020, the world economy will be very difficult. We are faced with three crises: the New Crown epidemic crisis; the economic recession crisis; and the civil liberty crisis that developed countries argue.