Under the loose monetary policy environment, with the steady increase in strength, institutions generally expect that the credit growth rate in April is expected to rebound further.
“Benefiting from the support of recent credit policies and the release of credit demand due to the resumption of production and production, the new RMB loans in April may reach 1.6 trillion yuan, which is The decline, but significantly higher than the same period last year. “UBS Securities expects.
The Bank of Communications Finance Research Center predicts that considering the factors of recovery and rescue of enterprises in March, a slight decline in financing conditions in April is also expected. Relevant regulation of real estate has not weakened. Although new real estate markets have appeared in Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other places, the regulatory authorities should have started to penetrate through the flow of preferential loans, so that the medium- and long-term loans of residents accounted for the increase in credit. The ratio should be relatively stable. In April, the credit growth rate will remain stable and increase slightly, with about 1.4 trillion yuan in new credit.
Although the issuance of local bonds has slowed down, corporate credit bonds are expected to support the growth of social financing in April.
CICC expects that the new loans will maintain a fast pace in April, and the increment of social financing may reach 2.5 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of social financing will rise to 11.8% about.
The agency believes that the issuance of local debt + special debt will slow down, but it is still expected to be 290 billion yuan, an increase of 40 billion yuan year-on-year. At present, the issuance of credit bonds continued to rebound to 1.7 trillion yuan, and the net increase is expected to reach 900 billion yuan, becoming the main support for social financing. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the issuance conditions are limited, and the net trust financing data displayed by the Unet Trust Network has decreased month-on-month, and the on-balance sheet financing costs have fallen, squeezing out non-standard financing. At -80 billion yuan, off-balance sheet bills have slowed down.
Hua Chuang Securities expects that with the support of easing policy and low interest rate environment, new social financing will increase by nearly 2.3 trillion yuan in April, which will further increase to 11.7% year-on-year . Among them, on-balance-sheet loans increased by about 1 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the net financing of corporate credit bonds exceeded 800 billion yuan, and the year-on-year increase was still about 400 billion yuan. Government bond financing fell to about 300 billion yuan from the previous month, but remained basically flat year-on-year.
M2, which represents generalized liquidity, is also expected to continue to rebound.
Societe Generale Research believes that for M1, corporate loans in the first quarter, especially short-termLoans have maintained rapid growth. In the first quarter, corporate short-term loans increased by a total of 1.25 trillion yuan year-on-year, which effectively improved the company’s cash flow. In addition, the base of M1 in the same period last year was low. Therefore, M1 in April is expected to increase to about 6.1% year-on-year. In terms of M2, the year-on-year growth rate of the balance of loans in April and the year-on-year growth rate of social balances may be higher than that of March. Therefore, the M2 of April may increase to 10.3% year-on-year.