Expert: The house is a very safe asset, and the rate of return on wealth management products will continue to decline.

This article comes from the WeChat public account: Tencent Finance (ID: financeapp) , the picture is from IC photo

For the roomThe next trend of real estate, Ding Anhua added that the house is a very safe asset, as long as it is self-occupied, it is a good time at any time. At present, the decline in interest rates, accumulated improvements and rigid demand are all favorable factors for the real estate market. Real estate is a highly controlled market in China, and there is no danger of a crash in the foreseeable future.

</ iframe> </ p></p> <p label = "Picture Remarks" class = "text-img-note"> Video: Helping to resume work and resume production Two sessions: A new situation in financial reform, about 1 hour, 42 minutes and 56 seconds, source: Xiaoyang Video </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> On May 27th, CCTV’s “Everyone Loves Made in China” Brand Assistance Initiative and Tencent News hosted the “Two Sessions” special planning “On the National Economy New Theory-New Growth in Economic Growth” online forum, invited to Industrial Bank Chief economist Lu Political Commissar, Chief Economist of China Merchants Bank Ding Anhua, Professor Guo Tianyong of the School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics, and Zeng Gang, Deputy Director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, four guests, on monetary policy, interest rate cuts, wealth management deposits, real estate, etc The topic was interpreted and discussed. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Regarding the “stable + flexible and modest” statement of the monetary policy in the “Government Work Report”, the Lu political commissar mentioned that in view of the current economic situation, it can be understood that the current policy should be generally loose and promote the economy to return to normal In order to ensure that the employment pressure can gradually reach the expected goal. Ding Anhua said that it is not possible to flood the river, which is called stability; to ensure that there is room for monetary policy, this is called flexibility. Zeng Gang said that there is still much room for discussion on structural and more precise monetary policy. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> For the question of whether to cut interest rates, the Lu political commissar said that there is room for decline in loan interest rates, LPR, seven-day reverse repurchase rates and MLF interest rates. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> <strong> As for the reduction of the benchmark interest rate of loans, this may be a late choice. </ strong> Ding Anhua and Guo Tianyong expressed different views on whether the deposit interest rate can be lowered again: Ding Anhua believes that the deposit interest rate needs to be urgently lowered as soon as possible, so that deposits can also be merged before the reform is completed; and Guo Tianyong believes that The deposit interest rate cannot be lowered again, one of the reasons is that Chinese residents are investing in channelsUnder limited circumstances, bank interest is still used as a source of property income. If it falls again, it will have a big impact on this group of people. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> For the next trend of real estate, Ding Anhua added that the house is a very safe asset, as long as it is self-occupied, it is a good time at any time. At present, the decline in interest rates, accumulated improvements and rigid demand are all favorable factors for the real estate market. <Strong> Real estate is a highly controlled market in China, and there is no danger of a crash in the foreseeable future. </ strong> Guo Tianyong and Zeng Gang commented on the rise of the property market in Shenzhen and other regions, saying that it may mean that there are still deviations in the implementation of policies. The macro-monetary and financial environment will have a basic impact on the overall price changes. The next step is to prevent the emergence of Real estate bubble. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> In addition, Lu political commissar also mentioned that the yield of financial products will continue to decline in the trend. If the money is not in a hurry to use in two or three years, it is more recommended to buy stocks or buy good funds. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p label = "大题" class = "text-big-title"> How to understand the expression of “stable + flexible and moderate” monetary policy? </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> The Political Commissar of Lu said first that the expression of “stableness” has been mentioned for many years. From the perspective of new information, we must focus on more flexible and appropriate. From an immediate perspective, the economic situation is obviously facing greater downward pressure, and more flexibility is to emphasize the further relaxation of monetary policy. Including the “Government Work Report” and the Politburo meeting, it is clearly mentioned that in the future, policy tools such as quasi-rate reduction, interest rate reduction and re-loan will continue to be used in order to promote the economy to return to a normal state as soon as possible. Steady means that when you need to relax or need to tighten up, you have to do it too much, just right. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> The Lu political commissar concluded that, combined with the current understanding, the current policy should generally be loose, so as to prompt the economy to return to normal as soon as possible, so as to ensure that the employment pressure can gradually achieve the expected goals. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Ding Anhua said that robustness and flexibility are also expressed in a specific context of China. Robustness mainly refers to rules-based, which means that certain disciplines and constraints are required. Flexibility refers to the choice of the camera. On the one hand, any policy must have market constraints and be disciplined and disciplined. Flexibility is to combine the development of the situation and leave room for the camera to choose. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> For the present, the meanings of stability and flexibility are mainly two points: first, from a sound perspective, China is now one of the few major economies that still implement normal monetary policy Irrigation can not lose discipline, this is called stability; on the other hand, to ensure that monetary policy has a certain room for maneuver, in the face of great uncertainty, you ca n’t burn all the bullets at once.Camera choice. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Guo Tianyong said that <strong> the bigger bright spot may be in fiscal policy. </ strong> Monetary policy is the most important policy of macroeconomic regulation and control, and it is a total policy. Fiscal policy focuses on structural adjustment and is a structural policy. If the fiscal policy spends a lot of power, or if the increment is very large, whether monetary policy should also be issued in such a large amount is worth our consideration. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Zeng Gang said that the “hit bullets” of major central banks in the world basically wiped out all the main ammunition in a very short time, but it is still very stable in terms of interest rate cuts-this reflects the strength, in The total amount remains stable, and stability can only be achieved. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Flexibility lies in innovation. There have been many innovations in monetary policy over the past period, both in China and abroad, and there are more and more structural monetary policies. He expects that there will be some innovations in monetary policy tools in the future, and there is still much room for discussion on structural and more precise monetary policies. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p label = "Large title" class = "text-big-title"> Is there a bigger action “rate cut”? </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> In response to the spread of the new crown epidemic, the Fed’s “one foot throttle” has dropped to zero interest rates, and negative interest rates in Europe and Japan have also been around for years. The global market is now paying attention. Will the People’s Bank of China have any interest rate cuts next? </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> The Lu political commissar said that it depends on what is going on. In his view, the loan interest rate is definitely going to fall; in order to ensure that the loan interest rate is going to fall, the future loan benchmark interest rate LPR still has room to fall; and to ensure that LPR can fall, the seven-day reverse repurchase and MLF interest rates also have room to fall . Among them, the Political Commissar of Lu mentioned that MLF is the most important starting point for the current interest rate decline, because this is the central bank’s policy interest rate, which is the anchor. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> As for the reduction of the benchmark interest rate of loans, this may be a late choice. In the next few months, the CPI will soon drop to 2% or even lower, which also provides room for the future reduction of the benchmark deposit interest rate. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Ding Anhua added that currently through the LPR reform, China ’s interest rate market has solved the dual-track merger problem of the marketization of the loan interest rate pricing mechanism, but the deposit on the other end has not been resolved. One year after the LPR reform was promoted, the pricing interest rate on the loan side fell by 46 basis points, while the interest rate on the liability side and the deposit side was basically negligible. The phenomenon of high-cost storage is widespread, and it has brought great impact to banks. Will affect the bank’s ability to supplement capital and support the real economy. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> The profit model of traditional bank spreads is being relatively largeSqueeze. Ding Anhua mentioned that according to the quarterly report of the first quarter, the net interest spread of listed banks is narrowing rapidly. The impact of the epidemic will also increase the bank’s NPL ratio. The ability to lend. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Therefore, Ding Anhua concluded that there is still room for interest rate decline, and by the end of this year, there may be 10 points of decline in the one-year LPR. However, the deposit interest rate, especially the regular deposit interest rate, needs to be lowered urgently as soon as possible, which can enable deposits to be consolidated even if the consolidation of loan interest rates is resolved, even if the reform is completed. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> However, Guo Tianyong expressed different views on this. He believes that China’s deposit interest rate can no longer be lowered. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> First of all, the one-year bank deposit rate is now 1.5%, and the current price level is still above 3%. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Second point, this time after the outbreak, the deposits of various banks have rebounded to varying degrees, and deposits are increasing. This also illustrates a problem. In the case of limited investment channels, Chinese residents still use bank interest as a source of property income, and declining interest rates has a great impact on this group of people. Especially for low- and middle-income earners, this one has a large amount. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Third, taking Japan as an example, the deposit interest rate is indeed very low, close to zero, but the loan end interest rate is only about 1%, which is very low. China ’s development is different from that of Japan and Europe. Their development speed is much slower than that of China. China ’s development speed is relatively high, and there are more enterprises with capital needs. Then, can China ’s bank loan interest rate level drop to 1% , 2%? If the loan interest rate cannot be reduced so low, the deposit interest rate cannot be reduced to zero. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p label = "大题" class = "text-big-title"> Will the rate of return on wealth management products decline further? </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Lu Political Commissar said that there is no doubt that the profitability of wealth management products will continue to decline in the trend. Because wealth management products are mainly bonds, and now the yield of short-term wealth management products is inverse to the yield of bonds under five years. Therefore, <strong> he suggested that buying wealth management should buy a longer term and lock in higher returns. </ strong> It is hard to expect that on the one hand, I hope to be able to raise funds, and on the other hand, I hope that the income from deposits and wealth management will not decline. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> About financial management, Lu Political Commissar also mentioned more suggestions: “finance wealth management and long-term stock purchase”, that is, if you want to buy bank wealth management, you need to buy a long term at this time, lock in high returns; Don’t rush to use it within a year, it is more recommended to buy stocks or good funds. If you think thisIf the market continues to rise, apply for partial stock funds; if you feel that the market is oscillating and you are still unclear, go to the hybrid fund. Some private equity funds that are larger in scale and more standardized can also be considered options. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p label = "Big title" class = "text-big-title"> How to get the real estate? </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> The “Government Work Report” once again emphasized that housing is not speculative. Under the current loose monetary policy tone, how will real estate go? </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Lu political commissar said that the first major principle is that the core of all real estate control is that prices cannot move. Through this one, on the one hand, it does not affect self-occupation, and the other is to squeeze out speculators from the market. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> In addition, it should be noted that the real estate market is showing obvious structural characteristics-different areas and different houses in the same area. At present, these five major urban agglomerations may show some more obvious characteristics of real estate recovery, such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta. But different houses in the same city are different, and better houses are now warming up faster. In the previous paragraph, I heard that a very interesting situation occurred in a house in Beijing, that is, both ends are good and the middle is poor. What does that mean? The total price of less than 10 million and more than 30 million is better, the market of 10 million to 30 million is not so good. Because 10 million to 30 million can’t be kept down, it is simply to solve the basic living needs of 10 million or less, which can be borne by some people. And further up, but it is not enough for the people who improve, or simply better, the result is more than 30 million. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Ding Anhua added that the house is a very safe asset, as long as it is self-occupied, it is a good time at any time. The impact of the epidemic on the real estate market caused a decline in sales, which are now being repaired. At present, the decline in interest rates, accumulated improvements and rigid demand are all favorable factors. Real estate is a highly controlled market in China, and there is no danger of a crash in the foreseeable future. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> Guo Tianyong said that based on the current <span class = "text-remarks" label = "Remarks"> (such as Shenzhen) </ span> under the pressure of the epidemic, real estate prices have risen against the trend The strange situation may mean that there are still deviations in the implementation of policies. In the case of monetary easing, the next step is to prevent a real estate bubble. Zeng Gang added that the real estate market is a very systematic and very large market, which is highly related to the entire macro policy. After the epidemic, real estate in the United States is also rising. The macro-monetary and financial environment will have a very basic impact on the overall price changes, including interest rate trends and liquidity. </ p></p> <p> </ p></p> <p> <span class = "text-remarks" label = "Remarks"> This article comes from the WeChat public account: </ span> <a href = "https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5OTA0Mzc2MA == & mid = 2651352176 & idx = 1 & sn = b65025f59cc888b25ec8425932d4c3e3 & chksm = bd3dbbaf8a4a32b9e4dbf3bd7ebb8df9ccd2b5fe6a9eabb5a17fddf11451a5b06c5cdb508010 & mpshare = 1 & scene = 1 & srcid = & sharer_sharetime = 1590717489158 & sharer_shareid = be8103098854364beb7fc7a4edcd2e7e & key = deafe58d7eaabf355f6aec413ca80ef1d90012c8bd00ac9addecd7719b9e15196d858a1682759ab347176455d3d9979579644f125d117422ac1b7ca3e51e28b7afe0e29ffe4f27fa96562a77de8b78e7 & ascene = 1 & uin = MjY0NDQ5NTM0MQ% 3D% 3D & devicetype = Windows + 10 + x64 & version = 6209007b & lang = zh_CN & exportkey = AWNdzUCB% 2FGuZiuv6lpYvnkA% 3D & pass_ticket = byylwfC2WuvvWGd5s% 2BK1ugoe% 2F% 2FygB0tdbxE% 2FRC2utfkfbbonTMM% 2BM% 2FdikmuoAGcI "target =" _ blank "rel =" nofollow "style =" text-decoration: none; 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